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[๐Ÿ”ฅ Hot off the Feed] Australia Goes All In on Aukus: A$12 Billion for Submarine Supremacy

Securing the Indo-Pacific, One Submarine at a Time

ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ํ•ต์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ํŒจ๊ถŒ์— 120์–ต ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ํˆฌ์ž

์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ํ•œ ์ฒ™์”ฉ, ์ธ๋„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘์˜ ์•ˆ๋ณด๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋‹ค

๐Ÿ˜Ž ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ฃผ์ œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ๋‹ค๋ฉด?

๐Ÿ‘‰ ์Šคํ„ฐ๋”” ์‹ ์ฒญ ๋งํฌ : https://forms.gle/6a6ou68a2YyLvnaMA

๐Ÿ‘‰ ์Šคํ„ฐ๋”” ๋ฌธ์˜ : https://open.kakao.com/me/insightsalon

๐Ÿ“Œ Context is King

Australia is making waves with its bold military commitmentโ€”investing A$12 billion (approx. $8 billion) to develop a cutting-edge defense hub in Perth. This move is part of the broader Aukus pact with the U.S. and the U.K., aimed at creating a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. It's the countryโ€™s most significant peacetime defense expansion in history.
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ ๊ฐ•ํ™”์— ์žˆ์–ด ์ „๋ก€ ์—†๋Š” ํ–‰๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํผ์Šค(Perth)์— 120์–ต ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 80์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ)๋ฅผ ๋“ค์—ฌ ์ตœ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ํ—ˆ๋ธŒ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญยท์˜๊ตญ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ํ•˜๋Š” ํ•ต์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ๊ณต๋™ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์ธ '์˜ค์ปค์Šค(Aukus)' ํ˜‘์ •์˜ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ด ๋˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๋Œ€์˜ ํ‰์‹œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ถœ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

This isnโ€™t just military modernizationโ€”itโ€™s geopolitical signaling. As regional tensions escalate, particularly with Chinaโ€™s growing military assertiveness, Canberra is placing bets on long-term deterrence and U.S. alliance durability.
์ด๋ฒˆ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ํ˜„๋Œ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ, ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋‹ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์ปค์ง€๋Š” ์•„์‹œ์•„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์ง€์—ญ์—์„œ, ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋Š” ์–ต์ œ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋ณด์™€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ์˜ ๋™๋งน ์œ ์ง€์— ์‚ฌํ™œ์„ ๊ฑธ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์…ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

*๐Ÿ“ Notes:

Korean Peninsula Denuclearization (ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋น„ํ•ตํ™” ์›์น™)
South Korea maintains a formal policy of denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula, agreed in inter-Korean declarations and respected in foreign policy.
ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ๋‚จ๋ถ ๊ณต๋™์„ ์–ธ ๋“ฑ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ํ•œ๋ฐ˜๋„ ์ „์ฒด์˜ ๋น„ํ•ตํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์›์น™์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ์•„์™”์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์™ธ๊ตยท์•ˆ๋ณด ์ •์ฑ…์—์„œ๋„ ์ด๋ฅผ ์ผ๊ด€๋˜๊ฒŒ ์ค€์ˆ˜ํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์›์น™์€ ํ•ต์ถ”์ง„ ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ด๋‚˜ ๋„์ž…์— ์žˆ์–ด ์™ธ๊ต์  ๋ถ€๋‹ด์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

IAEA (The International Atomic Energy Agency, ๊ตญ์ œ์›์ž๋ ฅ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ)
The International Atomic Energy Agency monitors nuclear materials to prevent military use. Any nuclear-powered submarine program must be transparently declared and inspected.
IAEA๋Š” ํ•ต๋ฌผ์งˆ์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ์ „์šฉ์„ ๋ง‰๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ™œ๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ์—” ์‚ฐํ•˜ ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ, ํ•ต์ถ”์ง„ ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ์‚ฌ์—…๋„ ์‚ฌ์ „ ์‹ ๊ณ ์™€ ์—„๊ฒฉํ•œ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•œ๊ตญ์ด ํ•ต์ถ”์ง„ ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ์— ์ ‘๊ทผํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ๊ตญ์ œ ๊ฐ์‹œ ์ฒด์ œ๋ฅผ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋Š” ์™ธ๊ต์  ์ด์Šˆ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

NPT (The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, ํ•ตํ™•์‚ฐ๊ธˆ์ง€์กฐ์•ฝ)
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty prohibits the spread of nuclear weapons and restricts the transfer of sensitive nuclear technologyโ€”even for non-weapon use.
NPT๋Š” ํ•ต๋ฌด๊ธฐ์˜ ํ™•์‚ฐ์„ ๋ง‰๊ณ , ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๋ชฉ์ ์ด๋ผ ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„ ๊ณ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ•ต๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ์ด์ „์„ ์ œํ•œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์กฐ์•ฝ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ด ์กฐ์•ฝ์„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ํ•ต์ถ”์ง„ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ์ œํ•œ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด, ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ํ•ต์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ์›์ž๋กœ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ™•๋ณด์— ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

FVEY (Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, ํŒŒ์ด๋ธŒ ์•„์ด์ฆˆ)
Five Eyes is an exclusive intelligence alliance among the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, enabling real-time sharing of military, cyber, and surveillance intelligence without restriction.
ํŒŒ์ด๋ธŒ ์•„์ด์ฆˆ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญยท์˜๊ตญยทํ˜ธ์ฃผยท์บ๋‚˜๋‹คยท๋‰ด์งˆ๋žœ๋“œ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌยท์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„ยท๊ฐ์‹œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œํ•œ ์—†์ด ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋Š” ํ์‡„์ ์ด๊ณ  ๊ณ ๋„ํ™”๋œ ์ •๋ณด ํ˜‘๋ ฅ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์—ฐํ•ฉ์€ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ด์ „ ๋ฐ ์•ˆ๋ณด ํ˜‘์ • ์ฒด๊ฒฐ์—์„œ ์ตœ์šฐ์„  ํ˜‘๋ ฅ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ„์ฃผ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ์ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๋ฐ”๊นฅ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐Ÿงฉ IYKYK(If you know, you know)

  1. Aukus Pact (์˜ค์ปค์Šค ํ˜‘์ •)
    A trilateral security agreement between Australia, the U.S., and the U.K., centered on sharing nuclear submarine technology and defense capabilities.
    โ†’ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ์˜๊ตญ 3๊ตญ์ด ํ•ต์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ํ˜‘์ •.

  2. Virginia-Class Submarine (๋ฒ„์ง€๋‹ˆ์•„๊ธ‰ ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ)
    A nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine class developed by the U.S. Navy.
    โ†’ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•œ ํ•ต ์ถ”์ง„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ˜• ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ.

  3. Defense Precinct (๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋‹จ์ง€)
    Designated zones for building and maintaining military infrastructure and vessels.
    โ†’ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์‹œ์„ค๊ณผ ํ•จ์ •์„ ๊ฑด์„คยท์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์‚ฐ์—… ๋‹จ์ง€.

  4. Strategic Autonomy (์ „๋žต์  ์ž์œจ์„ฑ)
    The ability of a state to pursue its national interests without excessive dependence on allies.
    โ†’ ๋™๋งน์— ๊ณผ๋„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์˜์กดํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ด์ต์„ ์ถ”๊ตฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ž์œจ์„ฑ.

  5. Peacetime Defense Surge (ํ‰์‹œ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ ฅ ์ฆ๊ฐ•)
    Large-scale military investment and expansion during non-war periods.
    โ†’ ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์•„๋‹˜์—๋„ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ณ  ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ํ˜„์ƒ.

๐Ÿง  In Focus

Australiaโ€™s pivot toward a more muscular defense posture marks a broader shift in Indo-Pacific security dynamics. The $70 billion decade-long plan signals that Canberra is no longer hedgingโ€”itโ€™s committing.
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ถ• ์ „ํ™˜์€ ์ธ๋„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์•ˆ๋ณด ์งˆ์„œ ๋ณ€ํ™”์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ–ฅํ›„ 10๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ด 700์–ต ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํˆฌ์ž ๊ณ„ํš์€, ๋” ์ด์ƒ '์–‘๋‹ค๋ฆฌ ์™ธ๊ต'๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ์ „๋žต์  ์„ ํƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Yet, the commitment comes at a time of global defense uncertaintyโ€”U.S. politics are in flux, and Aukusโ€™s continuity is questioned. The Albanese government is betting that early infrastructure will anchor Australiaโ€™s indispensability, regardless of Washington's leadership.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ๋ถˆํ™•์‹ค์„ฑ ์†์—์„œ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด ์ •์น˜ ์ง€ํ˜•์ด ์š”๋™์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์˜ค์ปค์Šค ํ˜‘์ •์˜ ์ง€์†์„ฑ๋„ ์˜๋ฌธ์‹œ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•Œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์ง€ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์„ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด, ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ •๊ถŒ์ด ๋“ค์–ด์„œ๋”๋ผ๋„ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ๊ฐ€์น˜๋ฅผ ๊ณต๊ณ ํžˆ ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ „๋žต์„ ํƒํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐Ÿ—ฃ How They Talk About It

๐Ÿ“Œ defense build-up / ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ ฅ ๊ฐ•ํ™”
โ€œThe Albanese governmentโ€™s defense build-up is the largest since WWII.โ€
โ€œ์•Œ๋ฐ”๋‹ˆ์ง€ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋Š” 2์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „ ์ดํ›„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€

๐Ÿ“Œ military deterrence / ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ์–ต์ง€๋ ฅ
โ€œAustralia is leaning into military deterrence to navigate regional tensions.โ€
โ€œํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋Š” ์—ญ๋‚ด ๊ธด์žฅ์„ ๋ŒํŒŒํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ์–ต์ง€๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€

๐Ÿ“Œ nuclear alliance / ํ•ต ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๋™๋งน
โ€œAukus is shaping up to be a new kind of nuclear alliance for the Indo-Pacific.โ€
โ€œ์˜ค์ปค์Šค๋Š” ์ธ๋„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํ˜•ํƒœ์˜ ํ•ต ๋™๋งน์œผ๋กœ ์ž๋ฆฌ์žก๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€

๐Ÿ“Œ strategic hedge / ์ „๋žต์  ๋ถ„์‚ฐ ํˆฌ์ž
โ€œBuilding submarines is a strategic hedge against geopolitical shifts.โ€
โ€œ์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์€ ์ง€์ •ํ•™์  ๋ณ€ํ™”์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•œ ์ „๋žต์  ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€

๐Ÿ“Œ forward posture / ๊ณต์„ธ์  ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ํƒœ์„ธ
โ€œThis isnโ€™t defenseโ€”itโ€™s a forward posture in anticipation of conflict.โ€
โ€œ์ด๊ฑด ๋ฐฉ์–ด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๋ถ„์Ÿ์„ ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•œ ๊ณต์„ธ์  ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ํƒœ์„ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€

๐ŸŽฌ Outro

In geopolitics, alliances arenโ€™t just promisesโ€”theyโ€™re infrastructure.
And Australia just poured concrete into its future.
์ง€์ •ํ•™์—์„œ๋Š” ๋™๋งน์ด ์•ฝ์†๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์ง€๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ, ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ธํ”„๋ผ์— ์ง์ ‘ ์ฝ˜ํฌ๋ฆฌํŠธ๋ฅผ ๋ถ“๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐Ÿงพ Sources

  • โ€œAustralia to Invest $8 Billion in Aukus Defense Hubโ€ (Bloomberg, 2025)

  • โ€œU.S. Allies Brace for Trump 2.0โ€ (Politico, 2025)

  • โ€œAustraliaโ€™s Nuclear Submarine Betโ€ (Washington Post, 2025)

  • โ€œWhy Was South Korea Left Out of Aukus Tech Transfers?โ€ (Chosun Ilbo, 2024)

  • โ€œIs a South Korean Nuclear Submarine Feasible?โ€ (Dong-A Ilbo, 2025)

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์ด ์ฝ˜ํ…์ธ ๋Š” Insight Salon ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ๊ตฌ๋…์ž๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ œ์ž‘๋œ ์ „์šฉ ์ž๋ฃŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ฝ˜ํ…์ธ ์˜ ๋ฌด๋‹จ ๋ณต์ œ, ๋ฐฐํฌ, ์ˆ˜์ •์€ ์—„๊ฒฉํžˆ ๊ธˆ์ง€๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

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๋ฉด์ฑ… ์กฐํ•ญ: ๋ณธ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ต์œก์ ยท์ •๋ณด ์ œ๊ณต์„ ๋ชฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์žฌ๋ฌดยท๋ฒ•๋ฅ  ๋“ฑ ์ „๋ฌธ์  ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋“  ์ •๋ณด๋Š” ๊ณต๊ฐœ๋œ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ฃผ๊ฐ€๋‚˜ ๊ฒฝ์˜ ์ „๋žต์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๋ชฉ์ ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

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